The complex dynamics of technological innovation: a comparison of models using cellular automata

Abstract

AbstractArthur's (1988, 1989) model of the ‘lock‐in’ predicates the dominance of a single technology, while Kauffman's (1993, 1995) NK‐model investigates the existence of different suboptima in a ‘rugged fitness landscape’. Can the two mechanisms also be offset against each other? Under what conditions can one expect a technological monopoly or an oligopoly to prevail? What can serve as a discursive ground for making comparisons among the results of these sophisticated models? In this study, the two models are first reconstructed using a common language for the coding. The results of the simulations are made visual on the screen by means of a cellular automaton that represents the diffusion of different technologies in terms of different colours. By using a single platform for the interpretation, one can specify the conditions under which the models compete for the explanation. Second, I address the question of how one model interacts with the other. The reduction of the complexity in the coding enables us to focus on the theoretical assumptions. The introduction of a Schumpeterian dynamics of ‘creative destruction’, for example, can be shown to introduce variation in ‘rugged fitness landscapes’. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.