The complementary role of carbon dioxide removal: A catalyst for advancing the COP28 pledges towards the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target

Abstract

As the imperative to address climate change becomes more pressing, there is an increasing focus on limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C by the end of the century relative to pre-industrial levels. During the recent Conference of Parties (COP28), nations committed to tripling renewable energy generation to a minimum of 11,000 GW by 2030 and increasing the global annual energy efficiency from 2 % to 4 % annually until 2030. Additionally, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) introduced a roadmap to transition the Agri-food system from a net emitter to a carbon sink. The role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is important; first to accelerate the near-term reduction in net emissions, counterbalance residual emissions at the point of net-zero by mid-century, and sustain large net negative emissions beyond mid-century to return warming to safe levels after decades of temporal overshoot. This paper assesses the impact of the COP 28 agreements, alongside the complementary role of CDR on emission levels, energy structure, land use, and global warming temperature. The findings indicate that implementing the COP28 pledges and FAO roadmap leads to a warming temperature of 2 °C, falling short of the ambitious 1.5 °C temperature limit. Likewise, more stringent actions on transitioning away from fossil plants is a high-priority mitigation action which drives significant emissions reduction. The modelled result shows that Agricultural soil carbon and biochar contribute 47–58 % share of the total CDR deployed in the stylized scenarios. In conclusion, CDR can expedite climate goals but must complement emission reduction efforts; hence, the transition away from fossil fuels should prompt the development of detailed roadmaps. Also, more global efforts should be placed on nature-based CDR methods, as they offer diverse co-benefits.