The comparison of relationship between climate variables and rice productivity in the clustering area on Java Island, Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to compare the relationship between climate variables and rice productivity under different irrigation systems (irrigated and rainfed) in the clustering area on Java Island, Indonesia. This study used the clustering areas resulting from the previous study. The climate variables used are bias-corrected MERRA2 data from the period 1987–2017, cropped for Java Island. The rice productivity and reference evapotranspiration data used in this study are the results of the simulation of Aquacrop modeling. The result from the cluster method used tends to divide Java Island into 2 clusters with different altitudes (lowland and highland) areas. The results show that the correlation values between the precipitation variable and rice productivity from Aquacrop simulation (both irrigated or rainfed) in cluster 1 (dominated lowlands) are higher than in cluster 2 (dominated highlands), contrary to that the correlation values between the reference evapotranspiration variable with rice productivity from Aquacrop simulation (both irrigated or rainfed) are higher in cluster 2 (dominated highlands) areas, compared to cluster 1 areas (dominated lowlands). R-square values from response surface methodology (RSM) on the rainfed system in both clusters are higher than those on the irrigated system. This indicates that rainfed agriculture is highly dependent on climate variables, especially precipitation and reference evapotranspiration variables compared with the regular irrigated agricultural system. The RSM result also shows that climate variables significantly contribute to the variation of rice productivity generated by Aquacrop modeling in irrigated and rainfed systems and in all clusters.