The Community Human Development Index (CHDI) as a Precision Public Health Vulnerability Metric and Risk Indicator for Predictive Analytics

Abstract

Accurately assessing and measuring population vulnerability across geographic scales is critical for health risk management of sustainable communities. Currently, the most widely used metric for vulnerability analysis in the United States is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a metric which has proven its utility in a number of circumstances. However, at times, its structure limits its use in international contexts and longitudinal studies. We propose the use of the Community Human Development Index (CHDI), a scalable and predictive tool, to address these gaps. Based on the setting, the CHDI can work either as a complementary metric alongside the SVI or as an alternative vulnerability metric. In our comprehensive study of over 70,000 census tracts in the United States, we found that CHDI correlates well with SVI at the neighborhood scale, while also capturing uniquely different information about the vulnerability of populations. We also found that the CHDI predicts community health outcomes as well or better than the SVI, and can be used as a proxy to measure changes in overall health risks to communities. As a Precision Public Health metric for population health vulnerability analysis and as a performance indicator of community health, CHDI can be used to provide an analytical basis for policy decision making. CHDI can be utilized to promote health equity across a broad range of communities through more accurate health risk assessments leading to strategic, targeted, and timely interventions for better health outcomes.