The Coming Shower of Leonids

Abstract

DURING the past few years English observers, in their efforts to witness returns of the Leonid meteors, have met with little but disappointment. Either the firmament has been overcast at the important time, or the display has been very weak. The rarity and singular attractiveness of a really fine meteoritic exhibition are such that the immediate prospect of viewing an event of the kind has aroused great interest in the whole subject of shooting stars. But we have been a little premature in our anticipations in recent years, and looking for the appearance of the meteors before the vanguard of the denser portion of the stream had begun to cross the earth's path. There can, however, be no doubt as to the character of the ensuing display. The earth will be sure to encounter one of the richest regions of the orbit at the middle of November, but whether or not this collision will occur at an hour perfectly suitable for its observation remains to be seen. It must be admitted that the exact time of the rencontre cannot be definitely stated. The materials upon which computations have to be based are not sufficiently numerous and consistent to enable exact deductions to be drawn from them. Moreover, there is evidence to show that the system of meteors is constantly undergoing changes. The particles are spread out, and are still spreading out, over a very considerable section of the orbit, and are subject to perturbations by the larger planets. Different sections of the stream are affected unequally, so that the whole system, both as regards its conformation and distribution, surfers from such irregular disturbances, that we must be prepared for the visible signs of developments of an unexpected character. In the present state of our knowledge it is impossible for us to allow for all the various circumstances and conditions which control the visible aspect of the shower, from year to year, and modify its orbital elements.