The combination model of serum occludin and clinical risk factors improved the efficacy for predicting hemorrhagic transformation in stroke patients with recanalization

Abstract

Backgroundand Purpose: Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) is one of the severe complications in acute ischemic stroke, especially for the patients who undergo recanalization treatment. It is crucial to screen patients who have high risk of HT before recanalization. However, current prediction models based on clinical factors are not ideal for clinical practice. Serum occludin, a biomarker for cerebral ischemia-induced blood-brain barrier disruption, has potential for predicting HT. This study was to investigate whether the combination of serum occludin and clinical risk factors improved the efficacy of predicting HT. MethodsThis was a single-center prospective observational study. Baseline clinical data and blood samples of recanalization patients were collected upon admission to our hospital. The level of serum occludin was measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The diagnosis of HT was confirmed by CT scans within 36 h post recanalization. ResultsA total of 324 patients with recanalization were enrolled and 68 patients presented HT occurrence. HT patients had the higher level of baseline occludin than patients without HT (p < 0.001). Multivariate regression analysis showed that serum occludin level, Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Scores and endovascular therapy were independent risk factors (p < 0.05) for HT after adjusting potential confounders. The combination of serum occludin and clinical risk factors significantly improved the accuracy of predicting HT [area under the curve (AUC, 0.821 vs 0.701, p < 0.001), and net reclassification improvement (31.1 %), integrated discrimination improvement (21.5 %), p < 0.001] compared to a model employing only clinical risk factors. The modified AUC (0.806) of combined model based on 10-fold-cross-validation was still higher than clinical risk model (0.701). ConclusionThe combination of serum occludin and clinical risk factors significantly improved the prediction efficacy for HT, providing a novel potential prediction model to screen for patients with high risk of HT before recanalization in acute ischemic stroke.