The Combination Forecasting of Nanchang Port's Cargo Throughput

Abstract

After analyzing the factors that influence Nanchang port's cargo throughput and discussing the forecasting idea and methods of port cargo throughput, the combination forecasting method adopting both qualitative and quantitative methods is proposed. Taking the Nanchang port's cargo throughput from 1995 to 2007 as the measured data, some forecasting models of port cargo throughput such as logarithm secondary exponential smoothing model ,neural network model,grey model, secondary exponential smoothing model,unitary non-linearity regression model and so on are established , then by comparing the discrepency between forecasting values and actual values and analyzing the cause of the discrepency and the limitations of single forecasting model ,the combination forecasting method of Nanchang port's cargo throughput is proposed, and its accuracy is obviously higher than other single forecasting methods.