The Colour Revolutions in the Rearview Mirror: Closer Than They Appear

Abstract

The so-called Bulldozer, Rose, Orange, and Tulip Revolutions have reminded us that as repressive as a regime may be, the real power ultimately belongs to the masses, especially when its forces are supported and channelled into non-violent action in pursuit of clear and concrete objectives. This article shows how the first of these events, the “Bulldozer Revolution,” unfolded in Serbia resulting in the ouster of the dictator Milošević. The lessons were then absorbed by Georgian activists who were similarly successful in replacing Shevardnadze with Saakashvili. In Ukraine, the election of Kuchma’s protégé, Yanukovych, was foiled when the “Orange Revolution” installed Yushchenko instead. The author also chronicles the “Tulip Revolution” of Kyrgyzstan. A notable feature of this paper is that, in addition to analyzing these “successful” revolutions, it also looks at some clearly unsuccessful ones, namely those attempted in Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Belarus. But the current global economic crisis could lead to more political changes in the former Soviet Union, whether in Belarus, the Caucasus, Central Asia, or even Russia itself. The article argues that the “colour revolutions” of 2000–2005 present a real danger to the authoritarian regime of Medvedev-Putin in Russia, and that their fear of them is hence thoroughly justified.