The collapse of marsh fritillary (Euphydryas aurinia) populations associated with declining host plant abundance

Abstract

Monophagous butterflies often have smaller ranges than their host plants, which could relate to host plant abundance. Many specialist butterflies have already gone regionally extinct and studies of the role of host plant and habitat abundance at resolutions sufficiently detailed to cover host plant abundance are urgently needed for conservation management. Here, we investigate the link between a predominantly monophagous butterfly – the critically endangered Euphydryas aurinia and its host – Succissa pratensis in Denmark using high resolution (1×1km) butterfly distribution data and an extensive national host plant frequency data set. More specifically, we assessed whether patterns in the present day distribution of S. pratensis and its habitat can explain the current distribution of E. aurinia and which ecological factors determine habitat suitability for S. pratensis. We used logistic regression to model the occurrence of E. aurinia as a function of habitat and host plant abundance as well as connectivity among habitats. We also modelled the occurrence of S. pratensis from habitat type, soil type, precipitation and indicators of soil moisture, nutrient level, and pH using generalized additive models. The remaining E. aurinia populations are confined to small regions in northern Jutland and this pattern was well predicted by our model. High modelled probabilities of E. aurinia coincided with habitat abundance exceeding 6–7% of land area and host plant frequency within habitat exceeding 40% at plot scale. Habitat connectivity was not included in the most parsimonious model. S. pratensis occurrence probability increased with pH, decreased with nutrient status and showed a unimodal response to soil moisture. The geographic partitioning of pH and nutrient effects indicated host plant scarcity due to eutrophication in Eastern Denmark and acidification in Western Denmark. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying empirical thresholds for habitat and host plant abundance in future conservation of herbivorous insects while also taking host plant habitat requirements into account.