THE CO-INTEGRATING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between financial inclusion and economic growth in SADC. It uses panel data covering the period between 1995 to 2015 and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lutkepohl (TYDL) models to examine the co-integrating relationship and the direction of causality respectively. The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth, when measured by the mobile penetration rate and the number of bank branches, diminishes in the long run to an extent of having a negative relationship with economic growth. This implies possible thresholds beyond which a negative impact on economic growth is realized. The long-run influence of financial inclusion on economic growth is hinged on financial technologies, measured by fixed broadband internet services, which have great potential to foster unique financial inclusion and shift the economic paradigm, leading to a digitalized economy. Only financial inclusion initiatives that result in increased bank deposit accounts promote economic growth. SADC is encouraged to liberalize its information and communications technology sector in order to fully benefit from financial inclusion initiatives. In addition, SADC should consider embracing international financial monitoring standards so that it does not fall behind the inevitable integration of the financial sectors.