The Climatology and Interannual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air–Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

Abstract

Abstract The climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air–sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The interannual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest eight models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies, and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO–western Pacific anticyclone (WPAC) teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the TEIO SST anomaly is warmer in CGCMs, since the easterly wind anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC reduce the climatological monsoon westerlies and decrease the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomaly and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the interannual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs.