The Climate of the Central Arizona and Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Site (CAP LTER) and Links to ENSO

Abstract

The Central Arizona and Phoenix LTER (CAP LTER) is one of two urban LTERs in the world network (Grimm et al. 2000; see http://caplter.asu.edu). Many LTER sites display a detectable climatic signal related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon (Greenland 1999). The purpose of this chapter is twofold: (1) to provide some insight into the role of the tropical Pacific Ocean as a driver of several climatic (and thus, ecologically related) variables in the CAP LTER location of central Arizona, and (2) to suggest the linkages of ENSO events to selected ecosystem processes near and within the geographical region of CAP LTER (figure 7.1a). From past studies, it is clear that the seasonal and annual climate regimes of the southwestern United States, particularly water-related parameters, are linked to the periodicities and anomalies of what is known as the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (e.g., Wolter 1987; Molles and Dahm 1990; Redmond and Koch 1991; Woolhiser and Keefer 1993; Wolter and Timlin 1993; Cayan and Redmond 1994; Redmond and Cayan 1994; Cayan et al. 1999; Redmond and Cayan 1999; Simpson and Colodner 1999; Redmond 2000; and Mason and Goddard 2001). In Arizona, and especially in the CAP LTER region, precipitation is bimodal during the year with peaks in winter (mostly midlatitudederived frontal storms) and in mid-to-late summer, mostly in the form of convective thunderstorms during the North American monsoon season. Recent studies show a strong connection between ENSO and winter moisture in Arizona, such that it is even possible to forecast impending conditions in advance (Pagano et al. 1999). These studies have established relationships between the climate of the southwest ern United States and ENSO by demonstrating monthly and daily timescale effects on inputs of moisture and resultant streamflow in Arizona (e.g., Molles and Dahm 1990; Cayan et al. 1999; and Simpson and Colodner 1999). The synoptic- and largescale circulation patterns associated with anomalies of MEI/SOI in the southwestern United States provide additional insight into regional forces that drive the CAPLTER climate (e.g., Redmond and Koch 1991). Generally, when the warm phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean occurs (El Niño, thus negative SOI, positive MEI), across the Southwest precipitation is generally anomalously high.