Abstract
The validity of the clearance rate as a measure of either criminal justice system (CJS) effectiveness or of the probability of punishment for crime can be questioned on the grounds that the relationship between CJS effectiveness and observed clearance rates is mediated by the choice behavior of criminals. If the clearance rate is endogenous in that sense, then recent econometric results concerning the deterrence effect of punishment are fundamentally flawed. A model of criminal adaptation to changes in CJS effectiveness illustrates the basic problem.
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