The cis-lunar ecosystem — A systems model and scenarios of the resource industry and its impact

Marc-Andre Chavy-Macdonald,Kazuya Oizumi,Jean-Paul Kneib,Kazuhiro Aoyama

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2021.06.017

Marc-Andre Chavy-Macdonald, Kazuya Oizumi + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2021.06.017

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Abstract

Lunar resources is one of the many new putative business models that may transform space logistics. Yet it competes with Earth-based resources, in a complex trade-off involving both tech development & socioeconomic dynamics. This study models the size vs. time of a future resource ecosystem focused on water for exploration and satellite refueling, in cis-lunar space. We use a recently-developed multi-methodology concept based on System Dynamics and scenario planning, characterizing uncertainties. Top critical uncertainties include the accessibility of resource finds, and government investment into lunar resources, demarcating 2 particularly illustrative scenarios: Moonopolis and Apollo 2.0 — a rosy and a low-resources future. Concurrently, a System Dynamics model with 7 interacting systems is developed: exploration, production, demand, satellite industry, R&D, natural resources, and government. It is based on models of other industries (e.g. oil) and can express the scenarios. Uncertainties in 25 variables are estimated, and sensitivity analysis of ecosystem size is performed globally using variance-based measures, including interaction effects. These show (a) systems are tightly coupled, (b) variable importance is sensitive to the baseline. Three variables are crucial: government support to production development, production firms’ re-investment, and growth of the GEO telecom satellite industry. A lunar resources ecosystem with $32B economic impact after 20 years is plausible, given excellent government support to production capacity, high growth in GEO satellites, early demand and large initial resource discoveries. The main contributions are a novel holistic model of the dynamics of a space resources industry showing how to mix technical & socioeconomic parts, and a first case study of the methodology.

Highlights

Future satellite refueling might use either terrestrial or lunar resources
Apart from the objectives (Fig. 1), the first output of this study is the KPIs/ranking criteria for a ‘‘good’’ ecosystem model. They loosely flow from the objectives, and are (a) credibility & market size, (b) value returned to Earth, (c) clarity of mechanisms, (d) feasibility of levers
The primary contribution of this study is a System Dynamics (SD) model & scenarios clarifying the logic of a lunar resource-based ecosystem, integrating technological and socioeconomic dynamics

Summary

Introduction

While propellants are more available on Earth, there is more transport ‘‘distance’’ (larger Δv) from Earth to orbit from the Moon. This is a complex trade-off that depends on the geography (e.g. LEO vs GEO), and on investment, infrastructure, and attendant transportation (and extraction) costs. A pure engineering study cannot determine whether Earth or Moon-sourced propellant is ‘‘better’’ in the long run, because it depends on investment and socioeconomic dynamics. Economic dynamics will themselves depend on technology development rates. Since technology and socioeconomic aspects are interdependent, an integrated approach is needed to capture this holistic trade-off. We will show how to account for both halves of this problem, by merging scenario planning and System Dynamics

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