Abstract

The neuroscience of human decision-making has focused on localizing brain activity correlating with decision variables and choice, most commonly using functional MRI (fMRI). Poor temporal resolution means these studies are agnostic in relation to how decisions unfold in time. Consequently, here we address the temporal evolution of neural activity related to encoding of risk using magnetoencephalography (MEG), and show modulations of electromagnetic power in posterior parietal and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) which scale with both variance and skewness in a lottery, detectable within 500 ms following stimulus presentation. Electromagnetic responses in somatosensory cortex following this risk encoding predict subsequent choices. Furthermore, within anterior insula we observed early and late effects of subject-specific risk preferences, suggestive of a role in both risk assessment and risk anticipation during choice. The observation that cortical activity tracks specific and independent components of risk from early time-points in a decision-making task supports the hypothesis that specialized brain circuitry underpins risk perception.

Highlights

  • Risk describes uncertain scenarios wherein chosen actions yield a range of possible outcomes that are quantified by different statistical features in a distribution

  • We analyzed activity unfolding from stimulus presentation, allowing us to map the temporal sequence of events underlying the initial stage of risk information processing

  • We focused on the chronometry of responses within the first second following stimulus presentation, as we were interested in processes underlying risk quantification and perception rather than responses locked to action execution

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Summary

Introduction

Risk describes uncertain scenarios wherein chosen actions yield a range of possible outcomes that are quantified by different statistical features in a distribution. On the other hand skewness measures asymmetry, where positive skewness describes distributions with occasional returns well-above average (e.g., casino gambles with high potential winnings) and negative skewness describes distributions with occasional poor outcomes (e.g., rare catastrophic occurrences during routine surgery) (Coombs, 1960; Jullien and Salanie, 2000). Trading off these distinct aspects of risk against potential returns is a central component of valuebased choice (Coombs, 1960; Weber and Johnson, 2008), making it likely that evolution has endowed specialized mechanisms for this evaluation. We capitalize on the temporal fidelity of MEG to study the chronometry of risk responses within these identified parietal and prefrontal regions at a sub-second timescale

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