The choices in the next energy and social revolution

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to provide a context for choosing the energy system that will replace fossil fuels. It does not pretend to answer all of the difficult problems that will be encountered in reaching equilibrium. It argues the case on physical and social grounds why solar energy, not nuclear fusion, the other possible ultimate source, provides the best alternative. Two events of unparalleled importance stand out in the long course of human history: the introduction of agriculture, and industrialization. They were profound energy and social revolutions: energy revolutions in that each vastly increased energy availability over the former period; social revolutions in that each increased the scale of society and rearranged the social order around new technologies, institutions, and values. As fossil fuels, the energy source of industrialization, are depleted, the world enters into the third most important energy and social revolution in the development of civilization. Natural and social systems operate under the same principles of energy management. Growth, stability, or decline is determined by the interdependent relationship between energy and structure (Energy in Natural and Social Systems). The evolution of civilization over more than a million years can be seen as a successful quest to control greater amounts of energy through social organization in three different energy and social systems: hunting and gathering, agriculture, and fossil fuels (Two Energy and Social Revolutions). Many nations based on different energy and social structures have flourished and disappeared throughtout history. The cases of Egypt, Rome, and Britain are used to illustrate the dynamic forces that affect the rise and fall of empires, dependence on foreign resources and the changing purposes of social organization (The Influence of Energy on Nations). The energy perspective of the paper suggests the relationship between continuous growth and social discontinuity in the United States (Continuous Growth and Social Discontinuity in the United States). The physical and social consequences of future energy alternatives are discussed in terms of an Orwellian-, Jeffersonian-, and Malthusian-type future (The Third Revolution: Orwell, Jefferson, or Malthus). The paper concludes with an endorsement of solar energy as the alternative most likely to afford a stable future in a humanly organized environment (Conclusion).