The choice of tax base by local authorities: voter preferences, special interest groups, and tax base diversification

Abstract

We analyze local jurisdictions’ behaviors when selecting the type of tax levied in support of local services. Our analysis focuses on taxes that must be approved by voters. Taxes differ in their incidence; thus, even when proposed revenue amounts are held constant, voting patterns and the aggregate level of voter support differ among potential revenue sources. We use a general model of political cost minimization to derive three hypotheses about local tax authorities’ behaviors. Using Ohio school district data, we find that the expected probability of passage is a highly important determinant of tax choice. Further, there is evidence that special interest groups wield influence greater than their direct impact on voting behavior, and evidence that tax authorities attempt to diversify their tax structure.