The Chinese Enigma: Impacts of WTO Accession Upon Canadian and U.S. Exports and Imports

Abstract

China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) is an important milestone in the integration of this nation into the world economy. Substantial reduction in trade barriers by China, one of the world's largest and most rapidly growing economies, is expected to have a significant impact, both on China itself and on the global economy. In assessing likely impacts on trade between China and North America of China joining the WTO, a priori one might expect new opportunities for China in labor intensive activities/products, while for the United States and for Canada one might expect added export market opportunities, as China grows, in activities/products that require land, resources and capital. However, the extent to which China and its trading partners will benefit from China's increasing integration into the global economy will largely depend on the internal changes in policy and infrastructure that may be adopted by China. China has embarked on a process of economic reform, but the speed and extent to which this continues to be pursued will affect this nation's ability to capitalize on its comparative advantages and to meet new challenges that are associated with the opportunities of access to a larger market. The difficulty of forecasting such internal changes means that China continues to be a major source of uncertainty in projecting world markets and trade flows. This uncertainty is particularly evident for trade in agricultural products