The Cheonan Dilemma, Inter-Korean Relations, and the Six Party Talks: A Korean Perspective

Abstract

Although the sinking of the Cheonan during US-ROK joint naval exercises on March 26, with the loss of 46 lives, was a tragic incident, South Korea’s Lee Myung-bak (hereafter LMB) government saw a political opportunity in the incident. By declaring North Korea as the culprit and announcing various sanctions on the North Korean regime, the ruling party tried to mobilize conservative voters in the nationwide local elections on June 2. The conservative LMB government also tried to get a United Nations Security Council resolution condemning North Korea as the culprit and intensifying international sanctions against the regime. Neither domestic politics nor international politics have unfolded in the way the LMB government anticipated. Rather than rewarding the government in the local elections, the government’s drive to politicize the Cheonan backfired and the main opposition party did surprisingly well. Serious doubts and scientific questions have been raised from within South Korea about the credibility of the findings of the Civilian-Military Joint Investigation Group. The management of the Cheonan has also created foreign policy dilemmas. In the aftermath of the Cheonan, the Six Party Talks have become hostage to South Korea’s insistence on a North Korean apology which is not likely to be forthcoming. The challenge for the LMB and Obama governments is to devise an exit strategy to get back to productive talks.