The Chechen crisis and the future of Russia

Abstract

Chechnya became the embodiment of current Russian problems rooted in the trauma of the former Soviet Union. Since then, the specter of secession has weighed heavily over the Russian Federation. The Chechen crisis has important implications for Russia since it touches on the most potentially explosive issue of national existence. This article assesses motivations in the Chechen crisis and puts forward a set of scenarios on the future evolution of Russia that are based on the Chechen experience. Western ambivalence considerably helped the Yeltsin regime in its pursuit of the military option.