The characteristics and influencing factors of change in farmland system vulnerability: A case study of Sanmenxia City, China

Abstract

The farmland social-ecological system is an integral part of a regional ecological system, and uses its unique perspective to trace the evolution of vulnerability of the whole ecosystem. Based on the theory of ecosystem vulnerability, the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram (VSD) assessment framework and index system of farmland system vulnerability were constructed by using multi-factor comprehensive analysis, ArcGIS spatial analysis and a factor contribution model. We evaluate the dynamic changes and influencing factors of farmland system vulnerability in Sanmenxia City, aiming to demonstrate the ways in which this vulnerability changes. The results showed a downward trend in the vulnerability of the farmland system in the city over a period of 17 years, from 0.60 in 2000 to 0.36 in 2016. From a spatial perspective, the distribution of vulnerability is uneven in each district and county. The pattern of vulnerability changed from “high in the Middle East-low in the southwest” in 2000 to “high in the Middle East-low in the southeast” in 2016. Population growth, high-speed urbanization, intensity of farmland use, factor input intensity and other human social and economic activities, together with the implementation of regional agricultural policies, have reduced the natural risk impact on the farmland social-ecological system. This is highly significant in revealing the overall evolution process and regional ecosystem mechanisms and informs the discussion on farmland social-ecosystem vulnerability in these representative areas.