The Channel Tunnel Rail Link in the UK: What have been the impacts on economic development?

Abstract

This paper focuses on the Channel Tunnel Rail Link in the UK, now rebranded as High Speed 1 (HS1). In a paper to the first conference in this series, we looked at the traffic impacts of HS1. International passenger traffic was approximately 50% below the forecast levels, with this shortfall being made up by domestic high speed services serving Kent. Despite this additional traffic, the performance of HS1 still seems disappointing in conventional cost-benefit terms. However, HS1 and the eastern approach to London were not envisaged by their proponents in purely conventional cost-benefit terms. Regeneration and the expansion of the London City Region were the primary objectives. Using, and updating, a series of research and student projects undertaken at the University of Southampton and related institutions (see Preston and Wall, 2008, Cascetta et al., 2010), in combination with publicly available data sets, the economic development impacts of HS1 are re-assessed. This includes consideration of the domestic high speed services that have operated since late 2009. It seems that the success of the UK’s Channel Tunnel Rail Links is dependent on substantial regeneration benefits over and above those associated with reducing imperfections in transport-using sectors and in promoting agglomeration benefits. As a result work on the extent of regeneration at St Pancras, Stratford, Ebbsfleet and Ashford is reviewed. The impact of HS1 on accessibility is re-considered and the impacts on property prices, property development, employment and Gross Value Added (GVA) are re-examined.