The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe Revisited

Abstract

Thirty years ago, Burnham (1965) published his seminal article asserting that the sharp decline in voter turnout around the turn of the century was associated with the emergence of capitalism and the adverse impact of industrialization on the party system. This research note examines the macroeconomic interpretation of declining turnout using aggregate time-series data for biennial House elections and presidential and midterm House elections between 1880 and 1960. Controlling for the effects of an expanding electorate in the form of immigration and women's suffrage, the surge associated with presidential elections, the impact of war, and the adoption of direct primaries and the secret ballot, the analysis reveals a strong negative relationship between turnout levels and banking, capital in manufacturing industries, and work stoppages and strikes. Between 1880 and 1920, these industrial conditions are predicted to be associated with one fourth of the shrinkage in the American voting universe. By the beginning of World War II, the marginalizing influence of changing economic conditions on turnout is minimal.