Abstract
Births outside marriage (BoM) account for around 15% of all births globally. However, the distribution around the world is very uneven, as are cultural and political attitudes towards them. Studies from East Asia have shown that the percentage of such births is very low, with only modest increases in recent years. The orthodox demographic view holds that the maintenance of conservative views around the relationship between marriage and childbearing can play a role in keeping fertility low. Prenuptial pregnancies (PNP) (where births occur within eight months of marriage) have been identified as a growing phenomenon in Japan, possibly being an ‘alternative’ Asian pathway to family formation. As yet, no comprehensive statistical analysis of the trends of BoM or PNP has been performed for Hong Kong. Using a comprehensive microdata set of birth registration in Hong Kong from 1984–2015 (N = 1,680,831) we provide evidence of recent trends in such ‘alternative pathways’ to family formation and examine predictors through regression analysis. Our results indicate, in common with elsewhere in East Asia, low overall period rates of either BoM or PNP (although the latter has risen notably in recent years). While more recent birth cohorts exhibit higher prevalence of such births, their incomplete nature and higher expected propensity suggests that the figures are exaggerated. In our regression analysis, we find that lower educational attainment is a strong predictor of both BoM and PNP, suggesting that a bifurcation of experience may be occurring. This adds further evidence to the theory that the maintenance of traditional family formation systems in the context of revolutionised educational and work opportunities for women mean that the opportunity costs of the ‘marriage package’ become too high. Current disparities in rights and privileges between married and unmarried parents–and especially their children–means that targeted family planning services and support for vulnerable families are policy priorities.
Highlights
In 2016, 15% of all of the births in the world occurred outside of marriage [1]
Prenuptial pregnancies (PNP) were defined as births occurring within eight months of marriage to allow for comparability with other studies [32]
In common with elsewhere in East Asia, the percentage of Births outside marriage (BoM) in Hong Kong is relatively low by OECD standards, and that the year-on-year trend shows only a modest increase
Summary
In 2016, 15% of all of the births in the world occurred outside of marriage [1]. this figure masks an enormous variation across countries. Within Second Demographic Transition Theory, for example, the weakened link between childbearing and marriage is most closely linked to a Maslowian drift and a rise in individuality and self-actualization associated with improved education and the demographic ‘vanguard’ [10] It is, often difficult to reconcile this ‘vanguard’ approach with the high rates of births outside of marriage found in population subgroups in OECD countries who are often characterized as poorer and where children have, comparatively, less successful outcomes [11]. Yip [21], for example, in making the link between low rates of BoM and low fertility notes that ‘It is very unlikely to see a rebound of fertility among the Hong Kong women in the near future if there is no increase in marriages or births outside wed-lock’. We attempt to fill this gap in the literature by examining recent trends in the changing relationship between birth and marriage in Hong Kong, and exploring their significance for the demographic, policy and social situation in the territory
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