Abstract

This article sheds light on the changing character of the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy based on the question of how the multipolarization of world politics has shaped the course of regional conflicts and the balance of forces in the region. In this framework, the article proposes transcending static labels such as Georgia / Azerbaijan as a “Western post,” Iran and Azerbaijan as “arch enemies,” and Armenia as a “traditional Russian ally” by reference to recent developments such as the peaceful rise of China in the region, Putin's Eurasianist geostrategic leanings, and the reorientation of Turkey's foreign policy since 2016. Georgian and Armenian color revolution dynamics are likely to be suppressed thanks to the recent foreign policy shift of Turkey as a strategic ally of Georgia, Georgia's inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and the Russo-Turkish rapprochement. Amidst deteriorating relations with the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the 2010s, moreover, Azerbaijan's foreign policy gives increasingly greater weight to relations with Russia, which can be further deepened under the influence of Turkey's foreign policy. A similar situation goes for Azerbaijan's involvement in the Non-Aligned Movement and BRI, as well as Iranian acknowledgment of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity despite unresolved tensions in bilateral relations.

Highlights

  • The geopolitical importance of Caucasia cannot be overstated

  • Taking these developments into account, the present article aims to shed light on the changing character of the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy based on the question of how the multipolarization of world politics has shaped the course of regional conflicts and the balance of forces in the region

  • This article has argued that the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy is subject to radical changes against the backdrop of multipolarization in world politics

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Summary

Methodological and Conceptual Framework

Before moving on to the analysis of the changing character of the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy, a few words are in order regarding the methodological and conceptual framework of this article. The “interpretivist” mode of process tracing (Vennesson 2008) allows for a more flexible narrative structure by reference to landmark or milestone events (e.g., color revolutions in Georgia and Armenia, the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia, Armenia’s participation in the North Atlantic Cooperation Council, Azerbaijan’s ascension to the Non-Aligned Movement in 2011, the 2020 Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict), without compromising empirical robustness The combination of this interpretivist mode with an actor-centered approach is very useful for international relations and strategic analysis, which both involve understanding the preferences, goals, values, and perceptions of global actors (Gürcan 2019a). In the remainder of this article, I will explore how the process of multipolarization affects the Transcaucasian geopolitical economy

The Changing Geopolitical Economy of Georgia under Multipolarity
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