Abstract

While HIV-1 subtype B has caused a large epidemic in the Western world, its transmission in Ukraine remains poorly understood. We assessed the genetic diversity of HIV-1 subtype B viruses circulating in Ukraine, characterized the transmission group structure, and estimated key evolutionary and epidemiological parameters. We analyzed 120 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences (including 46 newly generated) sampled from patients residing in 11 regions of Ukraine between 2002 and 2017. Phylogenies were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods. A Bayesian molecular clock coalescent analysis was used to estimate effective population size dynamics and date the most recent common ancestors of identified clades. A phylodynamic birth–death model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (Re) of these clades. We identified two phylogenetically distinct predominantly Ukrainian (≥75%) clades of HIV-1 subtype B. We found no significant transmission group structure for either clade, suggesting frequent mixing among transmission groups. The estimated dates of origin of both subtype B clades were around early 1970s, similar to the introduction of HIV-1 subtype A into Ukraine. Re was estimated to be 1.42 [95% highest posterior density (HPD) 1.26–1.56] for Clade 1 and 1.69 (95% HPD 1.49–1.84) for Clade 2. Evidently, the subtype B epidemic in the country is no longer concentrated in specific geographical regions or transmission groups. The study results highlight the necessity for strengthening preventive and monitoring efforts to reduce the further spread of HIV-1 subtype B.

Highlights

  • Ukraine has one of the worst HIV epidemics among European countries: in 2015, the country had the highest rate of new HIV infections in Europe (*30 cases per 100,000 people).[1]

  • Ukrainian HIV-1 subtype B sequences (n = 120) were obtained from patients belonging to four transmission groups: people who inject drugs (PWID) (n = 26), men who have sex with men (MSM) (n = 32), HET (n = 54), and mother-to-child transmission (MTC, n = 8)

  • HIV-1 subtype A has dominated the epidemic in Ukraine and other former Soviet Union (FSU) countries since the mid-1990s

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Summary

Introduction

Ukraine has one of the worst HIV epidemics among European countries: in 2015, the country had the highest rate of new HIV infections in Europe (*30 cases per 100,000 people).[1] In the 1990s, people who inject drugs (PWID) were the transmission group that accounted for majority of new HIV infections in Ukraine.[2,3] since the late 2000s, transmission among heterosexual nondrug-injecting populations has prevailed.[4]. Even though HIV-1 subtype B and CRF03_AB (the latter first found in the Russian city Kaliningrad5) were circulating in the country since the 1990s, the majority of HIV-1 infections in Ukraine are caused by HIV-1 subtype A.6,7. In 2015, 89% of HIV-1 sequences in the Ukrainian HIV database, a drug resistance screening database containing sequences from HIV patients in Ukraine, were identified as HIV-1 subtype A.8. Even though HIV-1 subtype B and CRF03_AB (the latter first found in the Russian city Kaliningrad5) were circulating in the country since the 1990s, the majority of HIV-1 infections in Ukraine are caused by HIV-1 subtype A.6,7 In 2015, 89% of HIV-1 sequences in the Ukrainian HIV database, a drug resistance screening database containing sequences from HIV patients in Ukraine, were identified as HIV-1 subtype A.8 88% of Ukrainian sequences in the

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