Abstract
How are the contours of Western European politics shifting? To what extent do these shifts reflect changes in the underlying social and economic structure of European polities? In this article, we reflect on insights from the classic literature on how cleavages structure party systems and consider how the emergence and persistence of new parties and new ideological conflicts are leading to both shifts of dividing lines of party competition and the fragmentation of party systems. While increasing attention has been given to the so-called second dimension of European electoral politics, we highlight the relatively limited focus on structural changes that are helping to drive this transformation. We identify some socio-demographic developments that are potentially generating new cleavages in Western European democracies: the expansion of higher education; mass migration and the growing ethnic diversity of electorates; the aging of societies and sharpening of generational divides; and increased geographical segregation of populations between prospering, globalized major cities and declining hinterlands.
Highlights
Across Western Europe, democratic politics is experiencing a period of disruption and fragmentation—reflecting and reinforcing the decline in traditional lines of political conflict
How are the contours of Western European politics shifting? To what extent do these shifts reflect changes in the underlying social and economic structure of European polities? What new cleavages are emerging that disrupt the traditionally dominant dimensions of electoral politics, threatening to render old patterns of competition obsolete and realigning politics around new ideological conflicts? While it is tempting to focus on the short-term forces shaping the twists and turns of European politics, there is much to be gained from stepping back to take a long view of how the structural divisions that shape electoral politics have changed and continue to change
While increasing scholarly attention has been given to this emerging second dimension of European politics, in particular to the strategic behavior of political parties in response to new pressures driven by globalization and European integration, there has been less focus on the shifts in the composition of European electorates that are helping to drive electoral change
Summary
Across Western Europe, democratic politics is experiencing a period of disruption and fragmentation—reflecting and reinforcing the decline in traditional lines of political conflict. “Catch-all” parties without stable social bases (Katz & Mair 1995) compete in a more volatile electoral market (Pedersen 1979, Fieldhouse et al 2019), where the fortunes of parties can change rapidly in response to shifts in voters’ issue preferences and priorities (Bélanger & Meguid 2008, Green-Pedersen 2019), in response to perceptions of the competence of parties and their leaders (Clarke et al 2004, Green & Jennings 2017), or in response to the rise and fall of the economic cycle (Lewis-Beck & Stegmaier 2000, Duch & Stevenson 2008) There is another possibility, raised by Lipset & Rokkan’s (1967) original analysis but neglected by many of the researchers focused on freezing and thawing—that cleavage structures could change organically, with new divides emerging as others fade away. A decline of traditional cleavages need not produce an open, unstructured politics but could instead result in the reorganization of party competition around new structural cleavages, as new divides open up in society and are mobilized and organized either by new parties or by major realignments in the support of existing parties
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