The Changes for Ischaemic Heart Disease Mortality at the Global Level and Their Association with Natural Disaster: A 28-Year Ecological Trend Study in 193 Countries

Abstract

Background: Natural disaster is considered to be associated with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to explore the changes for ischaemic heart disease(IHD) mortality and their association between natural disaster at the global level. Methods: Country-specific data on natural disaster impact (occurrence, casualties and total damage), IHD death and years of life lost (YLL) rates and socioeconomic variables were obtained for 193 countries from open sources for the period 1990 to 2017. An ecological trend study was conducted, and correlation analysis and multivariate linear regression were used to investigate the association among the variables and identify the determinants of IHD death and YLL rates. Findings: The significant changes were found in IHD death and YLL rates, and disaster occurrence between the two periods (1990 to 2013 and 2014 to 2017) (p<0.001). The bivariate Pearson correlation test revealed that the trend in the occurrence of natural disasters was positively correlated with trends in the IHD death and YLL rates for females and both sexes (p<0.05), and marginally correlated for males. Multiple linear regression revealed independent association between disaster occurrence and the IHD death rate for males, females and both sexes together (standardized coefficients=0.163, 0.357 and 0.241, p<0.05), similar associations were found for the YLL rate (standardized coefficients=0.194, 0.233 and 0.189, p<0.05). Interpretation: Our study demonstrated the independent association between natural disaster and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality at the global level. Both males and females were vulnerable to natural disasters in terms of IHD. These results provide evidence for policy making and resource allocation for disaster response and IHD burden. Funding Statement: This study was funded by the Health Commission of Sichuan Province (19PJ207), the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province (2018JY0389, 2018ZR0007, 2019YFS0443) and the Deyang Science and Technology Bureau (FY202008). Declaration of Interests: None exist. Ethics Approval Statement: Not required.