The Change Characteristics of Potential Habitat and Fishing Season for Neon Flying Squid in the Northwest Pacific Ocean under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

AbstractClimate‐driven changes in the marine environment can impact the distribution and abundance of marine species. Here, we combined available commercial fishery data of the neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in the traditional fishing grounds in the northwest Pacific Ocean collected by Chinese squid jigging vessels between 1996 and 2005 with the dominant environmental climate factors affecting its distribution. Fishery and dominant environmental climate factors were incorporated into a species distribution model (maximum entropy model, MaxEnt) to describe the suitable habitats for neon flying squid. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Community Earth System Model Version 1 were used with MaxEnt to project the future distribution of environmental suitability for neon flying squid. Results indicated that suitable neon flying squid habitat moved northward under climate change, and the projected area of suitable habitat decreased by the end of the century. Projections revealed that suitable habitats for neon flying squid will almost disappear between July and September by 2095 in RCP4.5, and between July and November (except in October, which increased by about 34%) in RCP8.5. These findings suggest that the fishing season for neon flying squid might be delayed and the total fishing time might be shortened. We suggest that adaptive fisheries management strategies, such as controlling fishing effort and setting a closed season, should be established as soon as possible in response to climate changes in the North Pacific Ocean.