The Challenges of Simulating SWE Beneath Forest Canopies are Reduced by Data Assimilation of Snow Depth

Abstract

AbstractIntermittent snow depth observations can be leveraged with data assimilation (DA) to improve model estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) at the point scale. A key consideration for scaling assimilation to the basin scale is its performance at forested locations—where canopy‐snow interactions affect snow accumulation and melt, yet are difficult to model and parameterize. We implement a particle filter (PF) technique to assimilate intermittent snow depth observations into the Flexible Snow Model, and validate model outputs against snow density and SWE measurements across adjacent forest and open sites, at two locations with different climates and forest structures. Assimilation reduces snow depth error by 70%–90%, density error by 5%–30%, and SWE error by 50%–70% at forest locations (relative to controls). The PF simulates the seasonal evolution of the snowpack under forest canopy, including where interception losses decrease SWE in the forest during accumulation, and shading reduces melt during the ablation season (relative to open sites). Model outputs are sensitive to canopy‐related parameters, but DA reduces the range in snow depth and SWE estimates resulting from variations or uncertainties in these parameters by over 50%. These results demonstrate that the importance of accurately measuring, estimating, or calibrating canopy‐related parameters is reduced when snow depth observations are assimilated. Finally, we assimilate remotely sensed snow depth observations at 50 m resolution across the East River Basin, Colorado (1,000 km2). Across elevations, the PF increases estimated precipitation at forested sites by ∼15% relative to open sites, likely compensating for excessive sublimation of intercepted snow.