Abstract
Prediction markets have captured the imagination of business thinkers—much like chaos theory captured it a decade ago. The urge is to apply prediction markets to a host of business challenges just like the urge was to apply insights of chaos theory to business challenges. However, the intelligent application of prediction markets within organizations may be no easier than the intelligent application of chaos theory to business strategy.I have chosen the comparison to chaos theory for two reasons. First, the excitement about prediction markets seems to me to have the same type of buzz that chaos theory carried in the late 1990s. Second, and more to the point, Jim Lavoie’s reference to the business potential of Web 2.0 tools arguably offers a platform for capturing some of the more realistic goals of those who once urged businesses to operate “on the edge of chaos”—as captured by the title of this popular-audience book: Surfing the Edge of Chaos: The Laws of Nature and the New Laws of Business.
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