The CGE Analysis of the US-China Trade War on the US, China, the EU, Korea, Japan, Vietnam, India, Mexico, and Brazil

Abstract

The recent US-China Trade War leads to a decrease in GDPs and welfare levels for the US and China as well as the whole world. The US-China Trade War also leads to the largest decrease in automobiles for US’s exports to China and the largest decrease in TextWepp for China’s exports to the US. And it also leads both the US and China to decrease in most product sectors. Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase their exports to the US in manufactured goods such as TextWapp, LightMnfc, HwavyMnfc, Chemical, Electronics sectors, except in primary sectors. However, Korea, Japan, the EU, Vietnam, India, Mexico and Brazil are expected to increase or decrease their exports to China according to their trade structure versus China. The welfare effects of the US and China as well as the whole world appear to be negative. However, welfare gains are expected to be relatively small positive in all other countries.