The certainty–offending relationship as a function of a nation's free market cultural ethos

Abstract

The current study sought to integrate aspects of classic strain and institutional anomie theories with concepts from deterrence and rational choice theories for application in a large sample of European respondents. Participants were 52,458 individuals (55% female, average age = 48 years) from the fifth round of the 27-country European Social Survey. Each participant rated their involvement in three relatively minor offenses (false insurance claims, buying stolen property, and traffic offenses) over the past five years along with their perceived certainty of getting caught and punished should they commit one or more of these prohibited acts. Each country's total 2010 Index of Economic Freedom score was also included in the study as a level 2 variable in a two-level multilevel modeling analysis. Consistent with predictions, participants from countries with higher Index of Economic Freedom scores displayed a significantly stronger connection between certainty of punishment and involvement in minor offending than participants from lower Index of Economic Freedom countries. An additional individual-level variable, the marketized mentality, was also included in the analysis and while it correlated with minor offending, it failed to interact with the Index of Economic Freedom or alter free market cultural ethos moderation of the certainty-offending relationship. These findings suggest that individuals living in a country with a strong free market cultural ethos are more apt to incorporate rational choice principles like certainty into their crime-related decisions than individuals residing in a country with a weaker free market cultural ethos.