The Cause of China's Haze Pollution: City Level Evidence Based on the Extended STIRPAT Model.

Abstract

Based on the extended STIRPAT model, this paper examines social and economic factors regarding PM2.5 concentration intensity in 255 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2016, and includes quantile regressions to analyze the different effects of these factors among cities of various sizes. The results indicate that: (1) during 2007–2016, urban PM2.5 concentration exhibited declining trends in fluctuations concerning the development of the urban economy, accompanied by uncertainty under different city types; (2) population size has a significant effect on propelling PM2.5 concentration; (3) the effect of structure reformation on PM2.5 concentration is evident among cities with different populations and levels of economic development; and (4) foreign investment and scientific technology can significantly reduce PM2.5 emission concentration in cities. Accordingly, local governments not only endeavor to further control population size, but should implement a recycling economy, and devise a viable urban industrial structure. The city governance policies for PM2.5 concentration reduction require re-classification according to different population scales. Cities with large populations (i.e., over 10 million) should consider reducing their energy consumption. Medium population-sized cities (between 1 million and 10 million) should indeed implement effective population (density) control policies, while cities with small populations (less than 1 million) should focus on promoting sustainable urban development to stop environmental pollution from secondary industry sources.