The causality of road traffic fatalities with its determinants in upper middle income countries: A continent-wide comparison

Abstract

This study aims to compare the causality and elasticity of road traffic fatalities (RTF) with their determinants for upper middle income countries from three continents by using annual data from 1994 to 2016. Vector Error Correction Model revealed the long run causality of RTF (Asia, Europe, America), GDP (Asia), rainfall (Europe), and population density (Europe, America). Two-way short-run causality was established in three panels of UMICs between RTF and rainfall (Asia), RTF and GDP (Europe, America), and RTF and population density (America). Short-run uni-directional causal association was also observed from RTF to GDP (Asia), RTF to rainfall (Europe, America), RTF to population density (Asia, Europe), and health expenditures to RTF (Europe). A significant fall in RTF was observed due to 1% rise in the share of health expenditures in GDP in UMICs from Asia (0.267%), Europe (0.064%), and America (0.549%). The significant rise in RTF was0.180%, 0.241%, and 0.702%due to 1%increase in per capita GDP in Asia, Europe, and America. The road safety is reduced due to rainfall because the rise in RTF was 0.082%and 0.260%for 1% rise in the rainfall in Asia and America, respectively. The impact of population density was beneficial for the road safety because the decrease in RTF was 0.246%, 0.234%, and 0.977% for 1% rise in the population density in Asia, Europe, and America. The governments should make strict policies for traffic laws implementation. The government should allocate more budget for health sector expenditures. The governments should include traffic education as part of syllabus from primary to higher studies. Government should create awareness about the loss due to road crashes.