The Causal Effect of Financial Crisis and Its Long‐Run Impact on Fertility

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of the 2008 financial crisis on Taiwan's fertility by exploiting a natural experiment in which public‐sector workers are unaffected due to job security. The financial crisis reduces the number of children by increasing the first‐birth interval, which leads to a lower probability of first birth. Women aged 33–38 experienced the largest decline in the probability of first birth, increasing the risks of permanent childlessness. Low‐income households and those with less‐educated spouses have a greater increase in the first‐birth interval. The number of children and the probability of first birth remain significantly lower 9 years after 2008.