The catastrophe prediction models of Dendrolimus punctatus based on disaster index

Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting the catastrophe occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus based on disaster index, the GM (1, 1) method was used to develop catastrophe prediction models of overwintering generation, first generation and second generation based on occurrence data which spanned from 1989 to 2016 in Qianshan City, Anhui Province. The GM (1, 1) catastrophe prediction models for each generation were , and . The years of catastrophe occurrence for each generation were obtained. The t values by t test between the predicted values and the observed values were 0.2873, 0.0335 and 0.1734 respectively, which were all less than t0.05, and the differences were not significant. The mean accuracies of predicted values were 82.50%, 97.88% and 93.16%. The predicted catastrophe about each generation will take place in 2031, 2026 and 2022 respectively. The catastrophe prediction method was simple to calculate and had high accuracy. It was an ideal method for predicting the catastrophe occurrence of Dendrolimus punctatus based on disaster index and provided a reference for other pests to predict catastrophe.