Abstract
AbstractIn this study, the causal nexus between child mortality rate, fertility rate, GDP, household final consumption expenditure, and food production index in Ghana was investigated spanning from 1971 to 2013 using the Autoregressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The study tested for unit root, ARDL bounds cointegration test, ARDL long-run elasticities, Granger causality, and Variance Decomposition Analysis using Cholesky technique. There was evidence of long-run equilibrium relationship running from fertility rate, food production index, GDP, and household final consumption expenditure to the mortality rate. There was evidence of a bidirectional causality running from household final consumption expenditure to fertility rate. Evidence from the Variance Decomposition Analysis shows that, almost 6% of future fluctuations in mortality rate are due to shocks in the food production index, while 2% of future fluctuations in mortality rate are due to shocks in fertility rate. Evidence from the study show...
Highlights
Child mortality has gained global prominence since 1990, progress has been made in reducing child mortality throughout the world (UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, 2015)
Five study variables were used in the study, which include: MR—Mortality rate, under-5, FR—Fertility rate, total, GDP—Gross Domestic Product, HFCE—Household final consumption expenditure, and FPI—Food production index (2004–2006 = 100)
The study tested for unit root, ARDL bounds test cointegration, ARDL long-run relationship, Granger causality test, and performed a Variance Decomposition Analysis using Cholesky technique
Summary
Child mortality has gained global prominence since 1990, progress has been made in reducing child mortality throughout the world (UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, 2015). The emergence of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) four sought to reduce child mortality by about two-thirds of the existing morality rates by the end of 2015. Progress has been made towards MDG four, according to the 2015 MDGs Report by the (United Nations, 2015a), the global under-5 mortality rate declined by more than half, dropping from 90 to 43 deaths per 1,000 livebirths between 1990 and 2015. Regardless of population growth in developing regions, global under-5 deaths declined from 12.7 million in 1990 to almost 6 million in 2015. The global rate of reduction in under-5 has more than tripled since the early 1990s. Sub-Saharan Africa experienced over five times faster annual rate of reduction in under-5 during 2005–2013 than in 1990–1995
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