The carbon dioxide challenge facing U.S. aviation and paths to achieve net zero emissions by 2050

Abstract

This paper investigates the potential pathways and associated requirements to meet a goal of net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the US commercial aviation sector by 2050 as outlined in the US 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan. Aviation traffic (RTK) is projected to grow at an average of 2.0% per annum between 2019 and 2050, suggesting that a progressive and ultimately total decoupling of emissions from traffic growth will be required to meet the US aviation sector goal. Aircraft technology advancements, operational efficiency improvements, sustainable aviation fuels, and market-based measures (MBM) are considered as emissions reductions measures towards the goal. A parametric analysis framework is used to develop low, medium, and high emission reduction scenarios for each of these emissions reduction measures. If aircraft technology, operations, and fuels were frozen at 2019 levels, the aviation sector is projected to emit ≈430 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 2050. Retirements of older aircraft, replaced by current-generation alternatives, may contribute 17% of the total 2050 emissions reduction goal. Further introduction of advanced aircraft technologies may contribute an additional system-level 11% emissions reductions towards the goal. Operational improvements may contribute ≈2% with a range from 1.5 to 4%. The remaining 70% of emissions in 2050 will be addressed through a combination of sustainable fuels and MBM, where appropriate. The level of contribution from fuels will be dependent on continued production ramp-up to meet aviation demand as well as improvements in lifecycle emissions reduction factor (ERF) for current and future fuel feedstock and production pathways, ranging from 0% for current petroleum-based fuels to 100% for sustainable aviation fuels with zero life-cycle emissions. Meeting a net-zero emissions goal by 2050 with SAF would require an increase in SAF production by 57% annually from 2022 to 2030 and 13% per year thereafter, reaching 100% emissions reductions factor by 2050. MBM may fill the gap between residual lifecycle emissions after accounting for all other in-sector improvement opportunities and the goal.