The carbon dioxide challenge facing aviation

Abstract

This paper investigates the challenge that U.S. aviation would face in meeting future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) reduction goals to mitigate global climate change via technological options. This investigation is done within a framework that considers aviation GHG emissions as a function of aviation growth, aircraft efficiency, operational efficiency, and life cycle GHG emissions of aviation fuels. The concept of life cycle GHG intensity (LGI) with units of grams carbon dioxide equivalent per payload distance traveled is used for this purpose as it can be decomposed into components that quantify improvements in aircraft design, operations, and alternative fuels. For example, the life cycle GHG intensity of U.S. aviation in 2005 was 1.37g CO2e/kgkm. If U.S. aviation is to meet the IATA 2050 goal of a 50% reduction in CO2 relative to a 2005 baseline while allowing for a 3.2% annual growth rate in payload–distance traveled, it will need to decrease to 0.22g CO2e/kgkm in 2050, an 84% reduction. The analysis framework that is developed in this manuscript was used to compare the improvements in life cycle GHG intensity that could accompany the use of advanced aircraft designs, operational improvements, and alternative fuels to those required on a fleet-wide basis to meet the future GHG reduction goals under varied aviation growth scenarios. The results indicate that the narrow body segment of the fleet could indeed meet ambitious goals of reducing GHG emissions by 50%, relative to 2005 levels, with a 3.2% annual growth rate; however, it would require relatively rapid adoption of innovative aircraft designs and the widespread use of alternative fuels with relatively low life cycle GHG emissions.