The CAP/RDP reforms in the EU-15 and the NMSs.

Abstract

AbstractThis chapter summarizes existing analyses of the Common Agricultural Policy/Rural Development Policy (CAP/RDP) reforms (mainly the original Mid Term Review (MTR) proposals of July 2002). It starts with a description of the Commission's MTR proposals, and reviews some basic analysis. The next section shows the results of quantitatively analysing at a NUTS3 level some estimates from one of these studies (the Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact (CAPRI) study). Finally, the implications of CAP reform for the new member states in Central Europe are discussed. It is indicated that CAP reform proposals are expected to generate a sustainable improvement in the medium-term perspectives of the agricultural sector of the EU-25. In the new member states, CAP reform could secure income gains, generated by enlargement, which could reach up to 45% when taking into account the phasing-in of direct payments and rural development measures. Although the territorially differentiated effects of the reform are rather difficult to calculate, it is concluded that the reform proposals would have diverging impacts across regions and the various sectors, leading to declines in the milk and (food) oilseed sectors, broadly stable development in the cereal sector, and significant gains for the meat sector.