Abstract
Abstract This paper describes validation tests of the Canadian Updateable Model Output Statistics (UMOS) system against the perfect prognosis forecast system and forecasts of weather elements from the operational numerical weather prediction model. Several update experiments were performed using 2-m temperature, 10-m wind direction and speed, and probability of precipitation as predictands. These experiments were designed to evaluate the ability of the UMOS system to provide improved forecasts during the period following a model change when the development samples contain data from two or more different model versions. Tests were run for about 200 Canadian stations for both summer and winter periods. Independent summer and winter samples were used in the evaluation, to compare UMOS forecast accuracy with the direct model output forecasts, the perfect prog forecasts, and MOS forecasts based only on data from the earlier model version. The authors were also able to compare the evaluation results of forecast...
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