The burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa and its association with development assistance for health and governance: An exploration of the GBD 2019 study

Abstract

ABSTRACT Even with a reduced burden of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), differences remain in the rate of change among countries and sub-regions. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to establish the relationship between Development Assistance for Health (DAH) and governance and trends in malaria burden in SSA. The trend was estimated using the Joinpoint regression program and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation’s DAH database, and World Bank Governance Indicators to analyze the DAH and governance respectively from 2000 to 2017 and used two-way fixed effects to establish their association with the trend in the period. The findings showed decreases in SSA’s age-standardised rates for disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) (−47% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) −69% to −14%)), deaths (−38% (95% UI −65% to −3%)), incidence (−35% (95% UI −44% to −25%)), and prevalence (−34% (95% UI −43% to −24%)). Decreases in ASDR were associated with increases in DAH (β −134.18, standard error (SE) 27.26) and governance scores (β −246.19, SE 39.13). The association between reductions in malaria burden and increases in DAH and in governance scores shows the need for accelerated funding of malaria programs and advocacy for better disease governance in malaria-endemic countries. Abbreviations: APC: Annual percentage change; ASDR: Age-standardised disability-adjusted life-year rate; ASIR: Age-standardised incidence rate; ASIR: Age-standardised incidence rate; ASMR: Age-standardised mortality rate; CSSA: Central sub-Saharan Africa; DAH: Development Assistance for Health; DALYs: Disability-adjusted life years; ESSA: Eastern sub-Saharan Africa; GBD: Global burden of disease; GHDx Global Health Data Exchange; IHME: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation; SDGs: Sustainable Development Goals; SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa; SSSA: Southern sub-Saharan Africa; UNSD: United Nations Statistics Division; USD: United States dollars; WGI: World Bank Governance Indicators; WHO: World Health Organization; WSSA: Western sub-Saharan Africa