The burden of liver cirrhosis and underlying etiologies: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Abstract

Liver cirrhosis is a major health concern. Herein, we aimed to estimate the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis caused by specific etiologies for 204 countries and territories. The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized death rate, and estimated annual percentage changes were used to estimate the trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis by sex, region, country, and etiology between 2009 and 2019. From 2009 to 2019, the incident cases of liver cirrhosis increased by 16.7%, from 1.8 million (95% uncertainty interval: 1.5-2.1) to 2.1 million (1.7-2.5), and the prevalent cases increased from 1378.3 million (1275.1-1498.8) to 1691.0 million (1560.9-1845.5). Liver cirrhosis contributed to nearly 1.5 million (1.4-1.6) deaths in 2019, nearly 0.2 million more than in 2009. However, the age-standardized death rate fell from 20.71 (19.79-21.65) per 100,000 population in 2009 to 18.00 (16.80-19.31) per 100,000 population in 2019. In terms of sex, males showed higher ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized death rate than females. Among the etiologies, the ASIR and ASPR of NAFLD increased markedly, and there was also a modest increase in ASIR and ASPR for HCV and alcohol use. In contrast, the ASIR and ASPR of HBV decreased considerably. Our finding suggests an increasing burden of liver cirrhosis worldwide but a declining attributed death. A high prevalence and still rising trend of NAFLD and alcohol use-etiology were found in patients with cirrhosis globally, although variation was found between regions/countries. These data indicate that efforts to reduce the associated burden need to be improved.