Abstract
Limited evidence is available on the association between temperature and years of life lost (YLL). We applied distributed lag non-linear model to assess the nonlinear and delayed effects of temperature on YLL due to cause-/age-/education-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China. We found that hot effects appeared immediately, while cold effects were more delayed and lasted for 14 days. On average, 1 °C decrease from 25th to 1st percentile of temperature was associated with an increase of 31.15 (95%CI: 20.57, 41.74), 12.86 (8.05, 17.68) and 6.64 (3.68, 9.61) YLL along lag 0–14 days for non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, respectively. The corresponding estimate of cumulative hot effects (1 °C increase from 75th to 99th percentile of temperature) was 12.71 (−2.80, 28.23), 4.81 (−2.25, 11.88) and 2.81 (−1.54, 7.16). Effect estimates of cold and hot temperatures-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than the elderly and those with high education level, respectively. The mortality risks associated with cold and hot temperatures were greater on the elderly and persons with low education level. This study highlights that YLL provides a complementary method for assessing the death burden of temperature.
Highlights
To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the relationship between ambient temperature and Years of life lost (YLL) in China
We found that cold and hot temperatures have significant impacts on YLL due to non-accidental and cardio-respiratory diseases
Cold and hot effects-related YLL were higher in people aged up to 75 years and persons with low education level than those older than 75 years and those with high education level
Summary
Years of life lost (YLL) is a measure of disease burden that takes account of life expectancy at death and gives higher weights to deaths at younger age. It is viewed as a more precise indicator of disease burden and has been intensively used to identify and prioritize causes of premature deaths around the world[19]. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of hot and cold temperatures on YLL due to cause-specific mortality in Guangzhou, China, during 2003–2007, China; and to stratify the analyses by gender, age, and education level
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