Abstract

Thrusting earthquakes in subduction zones generally occur along only part of the plate boundary, with motion along the shallowest part of the plate boundary occurring ascismically. The maximum size of subduction boundary thrust earthquakes depends strongly upon the down-dip width of the seismogenic zone. The single most uncertain factor in determining that width is the location of the up-dip limit of the zone (the seismic front), which depends upon the mechanical state of the sedimentary rocks in the plate boundary zone. In order to come to a better understanding of the seismic potential of sediments in a subduction zone, we carried out a series of triaxial experiments on Berea and Kayenta sandstones. Based on our experimental data, a brittle-ductile transition map was constructed showing that both porosity and effective pressure are important factors controlling the transition from brittle to macroscopically ductile behavior in porous rocks. In the brittle field, a sample fails by shear localization on one slip plane accompanied by strain softening and dilatancy, whereas in the ductile field, a sample deforms homogeneously with a constant yield stress or slight hardening. By comparing such a map with the estimated porosity profile of an accretionary wedge, the likely nature and rough location of the boundary between brittle and ductile behavior can be inferred. If the sediments along a plate boundary are too young and undercompacted to be capable of brittle shear localization, then their deformation is likely to be aseismic. In this way, it may be possible for even a very broad fore-arcs to produce no great earthquakes. However, great earthquakes are to be expected at margins that have large zones of plate contact along which many sediments are compacted and well lithified. Such rocks are expected to be capable of shear localization and brittle failure with the potential for stick-slip behavior.

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