The British opt-out from the European Monetary Union: empirical evidence from monetary policy rules

Abstract

We analyse the current state of monetary integration in Europe, focusing on the United Kingdom’s position regarding the European Monetary Union (EMU). The interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are compared through different specifications of the Taylor rule. Comparison of the monetary conduct of these two institutions provides useful guidance in identifying the differences that the British Government claims motivating its refusal to join the EMU. Testing for forward-looking behaviour and possible asymmetries in policy responses, we show evidence supporting the opt-out decision taken by the British Government.