The Bow and Arrow Mesoscale Convective Structure

Abstract

Abstract The accurate prediction of warm-season convective systems and the heavy rainfall and severe weather associated with them remains a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. This study looks at a circumstance in which quasi-stationary convection forms perpendicular to, and above the cold-pool behind strong bow echoes. The authors refer to this phenomenon as a “bow and arrow” because on radar imagery the two convective lines resemble an archer’s bow and arrow. The “arrow” can produce heavy rainfall and severe weather, extending over hundreds of kilometers. These events are challenging to forecast because they require an accurate forecast of earlier convection and the effects of that convection on the environment. In this study, basic characteristics of 14 events are documented, and observations of 4 events are presented to identify common environmental conditions prior to the development of the back-building convection. Simulations of three cases using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) are analyzed in an attempt to understand the mechanisms responsible for initiating and maintaining the convective line. In each case, strong southwesterly flow (inducing warm air advection and gradual isentropic lifting), in addition to directional and speed convergence into the convective arrow appear to contribute to initiation of convection. The linear orientation of the arrow may be associated with a combination of increased wind speeds and horizontal shear in the arrow region. When these ingredients are combined with thermodynamic instability, there appears to be a greater possibility of formation and maintenance of a convective arrow behind a bow echo.