The BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against new COVID-19 cases and complications of breakthrough cases: A nation-wide retrospective longitudinal multiple cohort analysis using individualised data.

Abstract

BackgroundThe rapid vaccination campaign against COVID-19 in Israel relied on the BNT162b2 vaccine. We performed a longitudinal analysis of multiple cohorts, using individual data, to evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccine against new and breakthrough cases.MethodsWe estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) for 27 consecutive cohorts, each comprised of individuals vaccinated on specific days. VE against new COVID-19 cases was evaluated for five SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes: infection, symptomatic disease, hospitalisation, severe/critical disease and death. For breakthrough cases, rate reduction was evaluated for hospitalisation, severe/critical disease and death. Outcomes were evaluated at predetermined time-periods after vaccination, the last one dedicated to individuals who became SARS-CoV-2-positive 22–28 days after the second dose.FindingsThe highest VE estimates against new cases in ≥16 year old individuals, for all outcomes, were reached at the 15–21 day period after the second dose, ranging between 97.7% (95% CI: 95.9–98.7%) for deaths and 98.6% (95% CI: 97.8–99.1%) for severe/critical disease. VE estimates of the 14–20 day period after the first dose ranged between 54.3% (95% CI: 50.6–57.8%) for infection and 77.3% (95% CI: 71.2–82.1%) for severe/critical disease. VE rose more slowly among ≥80 year old individuals. Rate reductions of breakthrough complications were highest at the 22–28 day period after the second dose, ranging between 47.4% (95% CI: 4.3–71.2%) for death and 66.2% (95% CI: 44.2–79.6%) for severe/critical disease.InterpretationThe BNT162 vaccine is highly effective in preventing new SARS-CoV-2 cases. Among ≥80 year old individuals, high effectiveness develops more slowly. In breakthrough cases, vaccination reduces complications and death.FundingNone.