The blocking anticyclones: the state of studies and forecasting

Abstract

In connection with analysis of anomalous weather in summer of 2010, the state-of-the-art is reviewed of climatology of the blocking anticyclones, of mechanism for their onset and persistence, as well as possibilities of their forecasting. The main results are quoted on occurrence frequency, intensity, and duration of blockings and on their connection with features of general circulation of the atmosphere in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. As the primary cause of the blocking formation, nonlinear instability of the Rossby waves is considered with intense energy exchange with planetary waves and with synoptic-scale eddies. Mathematical means have been developed to investigate the energy exchange on the real data of objective analysis (reanalysis). This approach can be applied to analyze causes of anomalous duration of the summer blocking. From the point of view of forecasting, blockings do not differ much from other atmospheric pressure systems. Namely, within the framework of medium-range forecasting, the blocking onset, under condition of its absence in the initial fields, can be predicted with a projection of several days; also, the ensemble forecasts are generally more successful than those obtained with any single model. The blocking duration and decay can be predicted successfully within the medium-range forecasting.